Statistics keep the economic growth estimate at 1.6% in Q3 and 2.7% at nine months

 The GDP – seasonly adjusted data – estimated for Q3 was 158.11 billion current prices, growing in real terms by 1.6% against the previous period and with 4.1% against Q3 of 2012. At nine months the GDP was 467.1 billion lei.As gross series GDP estimated for Q3 was 175.37 billion lei current prices, higher in real terms with 4.1% against Q3 2012, resulting at nine months a new increase of 2.7% of 443.18 billion lei.

 “The most important contributions for GDP increase between 1 January and 30 September 2013 against the corresponding period of 2012, were in the following branches: industry (+1.4%) with a share of 30.0% in GDP and whose volume of activity increased with 5.1%; agriculture, forestry and fishery (+1.0%) with a less share to GDP (5.8%) and whose volume of activity increased by 17.9%. The real estate tradings (+0.2%) with a share of 7.8% for GDP and whose volume of activity increased by 2.2%, a press release of the INS says.

 The reduction of the activity volume in public administration and defence: social security in the public system; education; health and social assistance with 0.7% had a negative effect on the evolution of the GDP, the contribution of this branch to the growth of GDP being -0.1%.

 From the point of view of GDP use, in the first nine months the growth was due to exports ( with a contribution of +5.2%), consequence of the growth by 14.4% of exports of goods and services correlated with a significantly more reduced increase of the volume of imports of goods and services by 1.5% and expenditure for end consumption of the population households ( +0.4%) with a share of 60.4% in the GDP whose volume was increased by 0.6%.

 As a negative contribution was recorded the gross formation of capital / assets (-1.1%) with a share of 24% in GDP, whose volume was reduced by 3.9%, the end consumption whose public administration (-0.3%) with a share of 15.7% of GDP, whose volume was reduced by 2.4%, the variation of stocks (-1.5%) as a result of the reduction of stocks in the economy.

 The first estimates of INS, announced at half-October showed that the economy grew by 1.6% in Q3 against the previous three months, over the expectations of the analysts, and by 4.1% as compared to July-September 2012, so that at nine months the GDP advance reached 2.7%.

 The statistics will be updated on 10 January the estimate regarding the evolution of economy.

 For the current year, the government, IMF and the European Commission anticipates an economic increase of 2.2% and for next year of 2.1- 2.2%. The draft budget for 2014 was made taking into consideration an increase of GDP by 2.2%.

 The prognosis for this year was revised upwards, in November, from 2% due to the good agricultural production and increasing exports. At the end of November the head of the IMF mission in Romania, Andrea Schaechter stated that IMF estimates for Romania in 2014 a real growth of GDP which keeps at the estimated level for the end of this year, of 2.2% but he expects the evolution will be decisively influenced by the domestic demand, with focus on investments and not on exports as at present. (source: actmedia.eu)